We gratefully acknowledge funding from the OME who supported this project under their 2018 Open Call for Research on Public Sector Pay and Workforces. The OME is an independent organisation that provides impartial secretariat support to the independent Pay Review Bodies. The work described in this report was carried out under contract as a part of OME’s research programme. The views and judgements expressed in this report are therefore those of the contractor and do not necessarily reflect those of the OME. We thank Nicola Allison, Andy Dickerson, Alex Bryson and Karen Mumford, and participants at OME’s Research Conference (March 2019) for useful comments on an earlier version of this report. Material from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings and the Quarterly Labour Force Survey is Crown Copyright, has been made available from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) through the UK Data Archive and has been used by permission. Although all efforts are made to ensure the quality of the materials, neither the original data creators, depositors or copyright holders, the funders of the data collections, nor the UK Data Archive, nor the UK Data Service bear any responsibility for the accuracy or comprehensiveness of these materials. This work uses research datasets which may not exactly reproduce National Statistics aggregates.