Explaining the salience of secessionist partyconstitutional demands for independence

Demands for independence have increased across Europe in the last decade,but there are limits to our understanding of what makes secessionist partiesmore ambiguous or assertive on independence. This article’s originalcontribution to the literature on regionalist parties in Western Europe is inaddressing gaps in understanding of secessionist party strategy.Consequently, its original theoretical contribution is to enrich analysis ofsecessionist party strategic calculations. It achieves this by advancing analysisof key factors influencing pro-independence parties’emphasis on theirsecession claims by modifying a framework of internal and external factorsdeveloped by Elias and Mees (2017). It deepens assessment of state-wideimpacts on the salience of pro-independence demands, including incumbentcentral government parties and secessionist parties in other parts of thestate. Empirically, the article evaluates the framework’s strengths byexamining the case of Plaid Cymru, Wales 2003–2021 drawing on a newdataset and qualitative research