WISERD would like to invite you all to the latest WISERD Lunchtime Seminar, presented by Sophie Bartlett (ADR Wales / Cardiff University). The presentation will take place on Friday 21 November, 12:00 – 13:00. This seminar will take place in person (sparc|spark) and online so please do not be deterred from joining if you are unable to make it in person. If you would like to join, have any questions, or would like to enquire about running your own lunchtime seminar; please contact wiserd.events@cardiff.ac.uk.


Choices and Chances: post-16 education pathways in biology, chemistry, and physics in Wales

 

This seminar presents findings from two large-scale studies examining pupils’ trajectories through early post-16 education in Wales, drawing on administrative data from a cohort of 8,010 pupils who completed their GCSEs in 2016/17. Using logistic regression models, the studies investigate predictors and patterns of progression and attainment in science subjects within the distinctive Welsh context; a bilingual nation that performs below the OECD average in PISA, even after accounting for socioeconomic factors.

Part 1 will explore factors shaping pupils’ choices to study biology, chemistry, and physics at AS-level, focusing on both pupil-level characteristics (prior attainment in mathematics, science, and English/Welsh, gender, socioeconomic background, SEND provision, and participation in triple science) and school-level factors (language medium and geography). Part 2 will examine how these same factors predict AS-level performance across both science and humanities disciplines.

Together, the studies illuminate how subject-specific and contextual factors interact to influence who continues with and succeeds in science beyond compulsory schooling. Findings also highlight the value of prior attainment in science for succeeding in broader post-16 subjects. By integrating insights on both choice and attainment, the studies offer a nuanced understanding of equity, bilingualism, and subject progression in post-compulsory education.