Publications

We model dynamic interdependence in cross-country economic growth processes by allowing it to vary according to democratic distance among economies. Stochastic distributional dynamics and temporal effects of democracy on economic growth are studied, and spatial variation in economic growth is explored. Among important results, democratic poverty trap is found to exist indicating the possibility of…

This report examines Annual Population Survey (APS) data containing new questions on Subjective Wellbeing (SWB). It focuses on comparisons between variations in SWB across countries of the UK and areas within Wales, as well as how SWB varies by demographic sub-groups within Wales. In particular, it identifies groups of individuals and areas within Wales where…

Attendees were welcomed and introduced themselves. It was explained that this event wasthe first of a series co-funded by the ESRC, to be held in collaboration with the WalesInstitute for Social and Economic Research, Data & Method (WISERD). The aim of theseevents will be to facilitate a regular and genuine dialogue between policy makers andpractitioners.

We study implications of persistence of shocks in total factor productivity (TFP) growth under Bayesian framework for a set of African countries over the period 1970-2003. Contrary to convention, we find that stochastic unit root is present for most of the African countries and that there is time-varying dependence structure in the underlying processes. The…

This report seeks to build upon the work of the National Equality Panel (NEP) and their report An Anatomy of Economic Inequality in the UK (2010). The findings provide a Wales specific analysis or evidence base. The data considers both the overall level of economic inequalities and the inequality that exists both between and within…

This paper seeks to understand the status of and changes in the Welsh automotive industry in the wake of globalization and the consequent structural challenges. Hailed as a budding leader in Europe in terms of auto-component production (where Wales purportedly boasts of supportive institutions, high quality infrastructure and flexible labour conditions), its ambition to maintain…

Business entrepreneurs are at the heart of a dynamic, knowledge based economy. Understanding the early stages of business growth is critical to the development of a thriving economy. However defined, the rate of entrepreneurship in Wales consistently lags behind most regions of the UK. This policy brief reviews the connection between entrepreneurial activity and socio-economic…

This paper illustrates both analytically and empirically that stochastic long-memory in economic growth arises due to the presence of a long-memory in population growth. Specifically, we show that the long-run conditional mean and variances of economic growth are functions of stochastic long-memory in demographic system. This is well-supported by an empirical example.

This article examines the post-application employment consequences for individuals registering complaints to Employment Tribunals following dismissal or redundancy. We consider several pieces of evidence: (a) the probability of finding another job, (b) the time taken to get a new job and (c) the pay/status of the new job. Our results indicate that age plays a…

This paper studies persistence properties of total factor productivity (TFP) from Bayesian perspective. Emphasizing that classical unit root test for TFP cannot determine the probability whether a stochastic shock to the series is permanent, we design a Bayesian unit root test for TFP. Examination for a set of African economies’ TFP data show that the…