New research from the ADR Wales team based within WISERD, at Cardiff University, has uncovered important insights into how pupils in Wales make post-16 subject choices, and what drives their academic success.
Drawing on data from more than 8,000 sixth form pupils, the research examined links between GCSE attainment and AS-level (first year of A-level) subject choices and outcomes. The findings reveal that prior achievement plays a substantial, and sometimes unexpected role in shaping both the subjects pupils choose and how well they perform in them.
As expected, pupils who achieved A or A* grades in GCSE science were considerably more likely to continue with science subjects at AS-level and to achieve high grades in them. However, the research also identified a less anticipated pattern: strong GCSE science performance was also powerful predictor of success in non-science subjects including history and English literature.
These findings, published in the British Journal of Educational Studies, challenge long-standing assumptions about the primacy of maths and English as the key foundations for academic progress and employability.
The research was led by Dr Sophie Bartlett, an ADR Wales researcher within WISERD, who said:
While science has long been recognised as a core school subject, it has not always been given the same priority as maths and English, and is often justified primarily in economic terms as a pathway to producing future scientists. These findings show that science attainment has a much broader academic value, predicting success even in humanities subjects.
Results also revealed a nuanced picture in terms of the role of GCSE English/Welsh proficiency in terms of progression in post-16 science. While pupils with high attainment in GCSE English/Welsh were less likely to choose physics at AS-level, those who did were more likely to achieve good grades. In contrast, high attainment in GCSE English/Welsh increased the likelihood of both choosing and achieving well in biology and chemistry AS-levels.
In Dr Bartlett’s latest article in the International Journal of Science Education, these patterns are discussed in terms of the differing nature of the sciences: biology and chemistry rely heavily on complex terminology and extended written explanations, whereas physics is more strongly rooted in mathematical representation. These differences may subtly influence how pupils perceive subjects, and whether they see them as aligned with their academic strengths and identities.
The research also offers timely insights for education policy in Wales, particularly as the future of science GCSEs comes under review. One key focus is the role of ‘triple science’ – a pathway in which pupils take separate GCSEs in biology, chemistry and physics.
While previous studies have shown that triple science pupils are more likely to continue studying science after the age of 16, this new research adds an important nuance: while taking triple science increases the likelihood of choosing science subjects at AS-level, it does not meaningfully improve the chances of achieving A-C grades.
This raises important questions about whether triple science enhances pupils’ preparedness for further study, or whether it acts primarily as a signal of suitability.
While this research is the first of its kind in Wales, the findings extend beyond the Welsh context. As many countries grapple with questions of curriculum design, these findings provide granular insight into the individual role of prior attainment in maths, science, and English/Welsh in later educational outcomes, with implications for how pupils can best prepare to maximise their chances of later academic success.
Find out more
- Read Dr Sophie Bartlett’s latest article, Prior attainment in science, maths, and language in relation to science subject choices in sixth forms in Wales, UK, in the International Journal of Science Education.
- Another recent article by Dr Bartlett, The Role of Maths, Science, and English/Welsh GCSE in Post-16 Subject Progression can be accessed via the British Journal of Educational Studies.
- You can also read more on The Conversation. In the article, Why science GCSEs matter more than we think in a post-truth age, Dr Sophie Bartlett and Professor Chris Taylor draw on the research findings to explore how science education can equip young people to navigate an era in which emotions and identity often outweigh evidence in shaping public opinion. The piece highlights why strengthening scientific literacy is more important now than ever.
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