Prior attainment in science, maths, and language in relation to science subject choices in sixth forms in Wales, UK

While young people express interest in science at school, many do not pursue science beyond compulsory education, threatening the scientific literacy that is demanded of citizens by an increasingly technology and scientifically driven world. This study presents a large-scale analysis of science subject choices in Wales; a bilingual nation undergoing curriculum reform. Using administrative data from 8,010 pupils who completed their core education at the age of 16 in 2016/17, logistic regression models examined the role of academic– pupil– and school-factors in choosing biology, chemistry, and physics for study in Sixth Forms. Findings reveal that prior attainment in science and maths strongly predicted further science choice, while higher language attainment was negatively associated with physics choice and positively associated with biology choice. While increased science teaching in earlier study increased the likelihood of continued science education, its influence was unequal across attainment groups. Sex, school language medium, and school geography revealed subject-specific effects. Results contribute further understanding on the role of language in post-compulsory science study and underscore the importance of disaggregating science subjects in research and policy. The study offers timely insights and broad implications for curriculum design, equity, and bilingual education in science that are of international relevance.